The depletion of budget coffers after 2018 means a string of deferred and painful decision for the economy that will be taken after mid-2018, Alfa Bank said in a research note.
"The odds of seeing the Russian economy rising 1-1.5% in 2017 are fairly high. Recovery prospects mainly reflect improved sentiment in consumption and a bet on electoral easing of the budget policy," said the note.
Alfa Bank analysts also said that economic recovery in Russia is hard to imagine without budget stimulus. "The model of economic growth has not changed, with the economy reverting to the pre-crisis model, i.e. recovery of consumption amid limited investment activities. In September retail sales already brought a surprise, sliding just 3.6% y-o-y, and gradual recovery of retail lending also props up retailing turnover," said the note.