PRIME-TASS. The Ministry for Economic Development does not rule out seeing inflation reach 10.5—11% this year, acting director of the ministry’s department for macroeconomic forecasting Evgeny Khotulev reported Tuesday. So, according to him, inflation will run slower than the official forecast of 11—12%.
“In the past two months zero inflation was recorded, as was also in the first weeks of October, therefore the annual inflation rate will most likely be a bit lower, maybe 10.5—11%," he noted. At the same time, as he thinks, “there are risks inflation will begin to accelerate at the end of the year”.
Bringing a macroeconomic forecast made by the Ministry for Economic Development, which was built into the frame for a draft budget for 2010—2012, to the attention of Duma members at a meeting of the Budget Committee Khotulev pointed out that the forecast suggests conservative estimates for the economy’s primary indicators. Specifically, the global economy is expected to narrow 1.8% to 2.7% this year and face stagnation next year. Conservative is also a forecast for crude prices: $57/bbl in 2009, $58 in 2010, $59 in 2011 and $60 in 2012. At the same time, Khotulev emphasized that based on data gathered during the 8-month monitoring, black gold prices just amounted to $57 a barrel which meets the forecast.
The unemployment rate, as said by the representative of the Ministry for Economic Development, is expected to equal 9.3% of economically active population this year. “Next year the situation should slightly worsen, with unemployment reaching 9.6%,“ he said. Growing inflation, according to him, takes into account the active measures taken to maintain employment. “There is a risk the labor market environment will deteriorate, exerting an adverse impact on domestic demand and growth rates of the country’s industries,” the ministry’s official admitted.
