Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) stopped falling in March, with no increase compared to the same period of last year vs. a 1.7% contraction in February. This estimate was disclosed in Vnesheconombank's materials. Meanwhile, the Russian economy expanded 0.2% m-o-m, excluding seasonality and calendar factors, after a 0.2% drop a month earlier.
"GDP grew compared to the previous month on the back of expansion in manufacturing (2.4%), retailing (0.5%), mineral extraction (0.1%) and net taxes (0.1%). A contraction was seen in construction (-1.7%), power supply and water supply (-1%), and agriculture (-0.1%)," VEB said in a press release.
Based on VEB's estimate, GDP grew 0.3% y-o-y in the first quarter (excluding seasonality and calendar factors).
"Consequently, the first quarter of 2017 saw further signs of an economic recovery, a trend that shaped up in the third and fourth quarters of 2016," said the press release.
At the same time, GDP decreased 0.3% y-o-y in January-March 2017 (a 0.3% increase in 4Q 2016), but this contraction "is fully explained by the high base effect of leap year 2016".
"Taking no account of seasonality and calendar factors, the economy has expanded for three straight quarters already, signaling it has got out of the recession. However, we are still cautious in assessing stability of the prevailing trend," VEB chief economist Andrey Klepach commented.
Russia's GDP grew 0.4% y-o-y in January-March 2017, excluding calendar factors, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said last week. In line with the ministry's baseline forecast, GDP would grow 2% in 2017.
